National League, game week 11 — UK time
Your appraisal — and now the market.
Worthing is new to this division, so the rank comparison rests on less than a shared season. Against the block the other keeps: Yeovil Town takes 2.00 points a game, Worthing 2.00 -- nothing between them. -0.23 points a game is the venue form gap, in Worthing's favour: Yeovil Town takes 1.52 a game at home over the last two seasons, Worthing 1.75 away. Yeovil Town scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 61-75; Worthing scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. The shapes mesh: Yeovil Town's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Worthing is softest. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 66% of their games, both teams scoring in 66%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 53%. On the record this leans a goals match.
If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: Worthing lands the first blow more often (8 of 10 to 26 of 50); a one-goal lead has not been safe in Yeovil Town's hands -- ahead without winning in 8 of 50; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Worthing's hands -- ahead without winning in 4 of 10; Yeovil Town finds its goals latest of all -- 18 of its 60 after the 75th, and Worthing concedes most in that same spell; Worthing finds its goals latest of all -- 5 of its 19 after the 75th; the last quarter-hour is where this fixture's money is likeliest to move.
That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it.
The tissue is a plain goals model: Yeovil Town 1.55 goals expected, Worthing 1.96, from two seasons of scoring rates (25 home matches and 4 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks.
Our tissue: Yeovil Town 3.25 (31%), the draw 4.59 (22%), Worthing 2.11 (47%). The market's averages: 2.05, 3.60 and 2.80. The widest gap is on Yeovil Town: the market is shorter (2.05) than our 3.25 -- it rates that outcome more than we do.
Our tissue: over 2.5 1.47 (68%), under 2.5 3.14 (32%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.49, under 2.5 2.55. Close to our view -- no argument either way.
Our tissue: yes 1.48 (68%), no 3.10 (32%). The market's averages: yes 1.42, no 2.70. Close to our view -- no argument either way.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Yeovil Town's own 25 home matches read, one appeared in 14 (56%). In Worthing's own 4 away matches read, 2 (50%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 53% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read.
The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing.
This match has kicked off since these figures were built — everything above was read from before kick-off only.
Built 19:01 from matches completed before kick-off. The tissue is a model, not a measurement; the market figures are recorded averages, not offers. Nothing here is a tip or a selection.