# Tamworth v Sutton United — the Match Wizard National League, game week 11 — Wednesday, 30 September 2026, kick-off 19:45 UK time. > The wizard is price-blind: four steps on played-match facts alone, then your appraisal — and only then the market. Read it in order. Nothing here is a tip or a selection. Tamworth: 50 league matches in the bank, 10 from this season and the rest from last season. Sutton United: 50 league matches in the bank, 10 from this season and the rest from last season. ## Step 1 of 4 — The table **The table makes Tamworth the bigger side: 11th against 19th of 24 last season. Against the block the other keeps: Tamworth takes 1.77 points a game, Sutton United 1.26 -- the block form is Tamworth's.** Step one is THE TABLE: rank against rank, and the blocks -- the table cut into a top, middle and bottom block, drawn from last season's final standings. The question is not just where each side stands but how it behaves against the company the other keeps: does it play to rank against the blocks above and below, or come apart? ### Tamworth -- at home - **Where it stands:** Stands 22nd of 24 after 10 games, with 8 points. Last season it finished 11th of 24 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the middle block (9th to 16th). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 10 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the bottom block (17th to 24th). Against that block it has won 6, drew 5, lost 2 of 13 -- 23 points of 39. At home against them: won 3 of 6. Away against them: won 3 of 7. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 5, drew 2, lost 10 of 17 (1.00 a game); against the middle block won 5, drew 5, lost 7 of 17 (1.18 a game); against the bottom block won 6, drew 5, lost 2 of 13 (1.77 a game); against sides new to the division won 1, drew 0, lost 2 of 3 (1.00 a game). ### Sutton United -- away - **Where it stands:** Stands 10th of 24 after 10 games, with 17 points. Last season it finished 19th of 24 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the bottom block (17th to 24th). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 10 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the middle block (9th to 16th). Against that block it has won 7, drew 3, lost 9 of 19 -- 24 points of 57. At home against them: won 4 of 10. Away against them: won 3 of 9. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 2, drew 4, lost 8 of 14 (0.71 a game); against the middle block won 7, drew 3, lost 9 of 19 (1.26 a game); against the bottom block won 6, drew 7, lost 3 of 16 (1.56 a game); against sides new to the division won 0, drew 0, lost 1 of 1 (0.00 a game). ## Step 2 of 4 — Home and away form **+0.54 points a game is the venue form gap, in Tamworth's favour: Tamworth takes 1.71 a game at home over the last two seasons, Sutton United 1.17 away.** Step two is HOME AND AWAY FORM -- the home side judged on its home record, the away side on its away record, because those are the records that will be on the pitch. The last five reach back into last season where this season is too young to answer, and say so. ### Tamworth -- at home - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season at home: won 2, drew 1, lost 1 of 4, scoring 8 and conceding 7. Last season at home: won 10, drew 4, lost 6 of 20, scoring 30 and conceding 21 -- 1.70 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: lost to Aldershot Town 1-5 away; beat Wealdstone 2-1 at home; lost to Southend United 1-3 away; lost to Harrogate Town 1-3 away; drew with Boston United 2-2 at home. - **The dugout:** Every one of the 21 banked matches with a manager recorded was taken by Andy Peaks. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ### Sutton United -- away - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season away: won 2, drew 1, lost 1 of 4, scoring 5 and conceding 4. Last season away: won 5, drew 6, lost 9 of 20, scoring 24 and conceding 31 -- 1.05 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: drew with Forest Green Rovers 3-3 at home; drew with Halifax Town 1-1 away; beat Eastleigh 2-1 at home; lost to Scunthorpe United 0-2 at home; lost to Barrow 0-3 away. - **The dugout:** The banked record belongs to the club, not one man: 3 different managers took its 19 matches with one recorded (12, 5, 2 apiece), most recently Chris Agutter with 12. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ## Step 3 of 4 — Goals, and when they come **Tamworth scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 31-45+; Sutton United scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 46-60.** Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference. Side by side: Tamworth scores most in the 76-90+ band (19 of 73); Tamworth concedes most in the 31-45+ band (22 of 91); Sutton United scores most in the 76-90+ band (18 of 66); Sutton United concedes most in the 46-60 band (18 of 81). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask. ### Tamworth -- at home - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.5 and concedes 1.8 a game over its last 50 league matches; at home, 1.6 for and 1.2 against over 24. - **When it scores:** Of 73 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 6; 16-30: 12; 31-45+: 9; 46-60: 11; 61-75: 16; 76-90+: 19. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 19 of 73 (26%). - **When it concedes:** Of 91 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 6; 16-30: 15; 31-45+: 22; 46-60: 21; 61-75: 15; 76-90+: 12. - **The first goal:** Scored first in 21 of its 50 read -- then won 11, drew 5, lost 5; conceded first in 27 -- pulled back 6 wins and 5 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 25 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 5 of its 50 read, winning 5 of them; trailed by two in 14, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 11. ### Sutton United -- away - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.3 and concedes 1.6 a game over its last 50 league matches; away, 1.2 for and 1.5 against over 24. - **When it scores:** Of 66 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 7; 16-30: 14; 31-45+: 8; 46-60: 9; 61-75: 10; 76-90+: 18. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 18 of 66 (27%). - **When it concedes:** Of 81 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 9; 16-30: 13; 31-45+: 11; 46-60: 18; 61-75: 12; 76-90+: 18. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 18 of 81 (22%). - **The first goal:** Scored first in 23 of its 50 read -- then won 14, drew 3, lost 6; conceded first in 25 -- pulled back 1 win and 9 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 14 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 11 of its 50 read, winning 10 of them; trailed by two in 14, rescuing 3 results; was ahead at some point without winning in 11. ## Step 4 of 4 — The bookies' favourite markets **Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 61% of their games, both teams scoring in 66%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 35%. On the record this leans a goals match.** Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds. How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Tamworth's numbers over its games, Sutton United's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so. For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Tamworth's own 24 home matches read, one appeared in 7 (29%). In Sutton United's own 24 away matches read, 10 (42%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 35% of games. ### Tamworth -- at home - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 32 of its own 50 (64%); over 1.5 in 40 (80%); over 3.5 in 23 (46%). At home: over 2.5 in 12 of its 24 (50%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 37 of its own 50 (74%). At home: 16 of its 24 (67%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 7 of its own 50 (14%); failed to score in 8 (16%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Tamworth's own 50 matches read: Tamworth or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 19 (38%). Tamworth itself held the lead in 5, winning 5. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 7 of 24. ### Sutton United -- away - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 29 of its own 50 (58%); over 1.5 in 41 (82%); over 3.5 in 13 (26%). Away: over 2.5 in 12 of its 24 (50%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 29 of its own 50 (58%). Away: 12 of its 24 (50%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 10 of its own 50 (20%); failed to score in 13 (26%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Sutton United's own 50 matches read: Sutton United or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 24 (48%). Sutton United itself held the lead in 11, winning 10. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 10 of 24. ## Your appraisal — and now the market **The table makes Tamworth the bigger side: 11th against 19th of 24 last season. Against the block the other keeps: Tamworth takes 1.77 points a game, Sutton United 1.26 -- the block form is Tamworth's. +0.54 points a game is the venue form gap, in Tamworth's favour: Tamworth takes 1.71 a game at home over the last two seasons, Sutton United 1.17 away. Tamworth scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 31-45+; Sutton United scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 46-60. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 61% of their games, both teams scoring in 66%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 35%. On the record this leans a goals match.** If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: the first blow is even money on the record (21 of 50 and 23 of 50); when a lead builds towards 2UP it is more often Sutton United's -- two goals clear in 11 of 50, against 5 of 50; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Tamworth's hands -- ahead without winning in 11 of 50; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Sutton United's hands -- ahead without winning in 11 of 50; Tamworth finds its goals latest of all -- 19 of its 73 after the 75th; Sutton United finds its goals latest of all -- 18 of its 66 after the 75th. That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it. The tissue is a plain goals model: Tamworth 1.48 goals expected, Sutton United 1.11, from two seasons of scoring rates (24 home matches and 24 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks. - **Match result:** Our tissue: Tamworth 2.19 (46%), the draw 3.86 (26%), Sutton United 3.52 (28%). The market's averages: 2.28, 3.35 and 2.73. The widest gap is on Sutton United: the market is shorter (2.73) than our 3.52 -- it rates that outcome more than we do. - **Over or under 2.5 goals:** Our tissue: over 2.5 2.08 (48%), under 2.5 1.92 (52%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.60, under 2.5 2.14. The market is shorter than our number on over 2.5. - **Both teams to score:** Our tissue: yes 1.93 (52%), no 2.08 (48%). The market's averages: yes 1.51, no 2.36. The market is shorter than our number on yes. - **The 2UP fact:** For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Tamworth's own 24 home matches read, one appeared in 7 (29%). In Sutton United's own 24 away matches read, 10 (42%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 35% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read. The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing. ## Half-time The HTML page reads the second half from any half-time score you give it: /football/wizard/national-league/2026-09-30/tamworth-v-sutton-united/halftime/ Built 2026-09-29T18:01:31+00:00 from matches completed before kick-off.