# Yeovil Town v Worthing — the Match Wizard National League, game week 11 — Tuesday, 29 September 2026, kick-off 19:45 UK time. > The wizard is price-blind: four steps on played-match facts alone, then your appraisal — and only then the market. Read it in order. Nothing here is a tip or a selection. Yeovil Town: 50 league matches in the bank, 10 from this season and the rest from last season. Worthing: 10 league matches in the bank. ## Step 1 of 4 — The table **Worthing is new to this division, so the rank comparison rests on less than a shared season. Against the block the other keeps: Yeovil Town takes 2.00 points a game, Worthing 2.00 -- nothing between them.** Step one is THE TABLE: rank against rank, and the blocks -- the table cut into a top, middle and bottom block, drawn from last season's final standings. The question is not just where each side stands but how it behaves against the company the other keeps: does it play to rank against the blocks above and below, or come apart? ### Yeovil Town -- at home - **Where it stands:** Stands 7th of 24 after 10 games, with 18 points. Last season it finished 16th of 24 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the middle block (9th to 16th). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 10 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side new to its division. Against that block it has won 2, drew 0, lost 1 of 3 -- 6 points of 9. At home against them: won 0 of 1. Away against them: won 2 of 2. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 0, drew 5, lost 12 of 17 (0.29 a game); against the middle block won 10, drew 0, lost 5 of 15 (2.00 a game); against the bottom block won 7, drew 3, lost 5 of 15 (1.60 a game); against sides new to the division won 2, drew 0, lost 1 of 3 (2.00 a game). ### Worthing -- away - **Where it stands:** Stands 9th of 24 after 10 games, with 17 points. Last season it played outside the leagues we cover, so we hold no standing for it. - **Its block:** New to the division this season, so it takes no block from last season's final table. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the middle block (9th to 16th). Against that block it has won 2, drew 0, lost 1 of 3 -- 6 points of 9. At home against them: won 1 of 1. Away against them: won 1 of 2. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 2, drew 0, lost 2 of 4 (1.50 a game); against the middle block won 2, drew 0, lost 1 of 3 (2.00 a game); against sides new to the division won 1, drew 2, lost 0 of 3 (1.67 a game). ## Step 2 of 4 — Home and away form **-0.23 points a game is the venue form gap, in Worthing's favour: Yeovil Town takes 1.52 a game at home over the last two seasons, Worthing 1.75 away.** Step two is HOME AND AWAY FORM -- the home side judged on its home record, the away side on its away record, because those are the records that will be on the pitch. The last five reach back into last season where this season is too young to answer, and say so. ### Yeovil Town -- at home - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season at home: won 3, drew 1, lost 1 of 5, scoring 12 and conceding 8. Last season at home: won 8, drew 4, lost 8 of 20, scoring 22 and conceding 29 -- 1.40 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: beat Kidderminster Harriers 1-0 away; beat Solihull Moors 4-1 at home; drew with Aldershot Town 1-1 away; lost to Fylde 1-4 at home; lost to Southend United 2-3 away. - **The dugout:** Every one of the 5 banked matches with a manager recorded was taken by Mark Cooper. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ### Worthing -- away - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season away: won 2, drew 1, lost 1 of 4, scoring 10 and conceding 8. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: beat Halifax Town 2-1 at home; beat Hartlepool United 3-1 away; beat AFC Hornchurch 1-0 at home; drew with Barrow 2-2 at home; drew with Fylde 2-2 away. - **The dugout:** Every one of the 10 banked matches with a manager recorded was taken by Adam Hinshelwood. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ## Step 3 of 4 — Goals, and when they come **Yeovil Town scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 61-75; Worthing scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. The shapes mesh: Yeovil Town's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Worthing is softest.** Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference. Side by side: Yeovil Town scores most in the 76-90+ band (18 of 60); Yeovil Town concedes most in the 61-75 band (16 of 71); Worthing scores most in the 76-90+ band (5 of 19); Worthing concedes most in the 76-90+ band (7 of 16). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask. ### Yeovil Town -- at home - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.2 and concedes 1.4 a game over its last 50 league matches; at home, 1.4 for and 1.5 against over 25. - **When it scores:** Of 60 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 9; 16-30: 10; 31-45+: 5; 46-60: 9; 61-75: 9; 76-90+: 18. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 18 of 60 (30%). - **When it concedes:** Of 71 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 8; 16-30: 11; 31-45+: 15; 46-60: 6; 61-75: 16; 76-90+: 15. - **The first goal:** Scored first in 26 of its 50 read -- then won 18, drew 5, lost 3; conceded first in 22 -- pulled back 1 win and 1 draw from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 7 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 11 of its 50 read, winning 10 of them; trailed by two in 12, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 8. ### Worthing -- away - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.9 and concedes 1.6 a game over its last 10 league matches; away, 2.5 for and 2.0 against over 4. - **When it scores:** Of 19 scored across its own 10 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 3; 16-30: 2; 31-45+: 4; 46-60: 2; 61-75: 3; 76-90+: 5. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 5 of 19 (26%). - **When it concedes:** Of 16 conceded across its own 10 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 0; 16-30: 2; 31-45+: 2; 46-60: 3; 61-75: 2; 76-90+: 7. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 7 of 16 (44%). - **The first goal:** Scored first in 8 of its 10 read -- then won 4, drew 1, lost 3; conceded first in 2 -- pulled back 1 win and 1 draw from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 5 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 2 of its 10 read, winning 2 of them; trailed by two in 2, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 4. ## Step 4 of 4 — The bookies' favourite markets **Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 66% of their games, both teams scoring in 66%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 53%. On the record this leans a goals match.** Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds. How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Yeovil Town's numbers over its games, Worthing's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so. For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Yeovil Town's own 25 home matches read, one appeared in 14 (56%). In Worthing's own 4 away matches read, 2 (50%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 53% of games. ### Yeovil Town -- at home - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 26 of its own 50 (52%); over 1.5 in 37 (74%); over 3.5 in 11 (22%). At home: over 2.5 in 13 of its 25 (52%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 26 of its own 50 (52%). At home: 14 of its 25 (56%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 12 of its own 50 (24%); failed to score in 14 (28%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Yeovil Town's own 50 matches read: Yeovil Town or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 23 (46%). Yeovil Town itself held the lead in 11, winning 10. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 14 of 25. ### Worthing -- away - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 8 of its own 10 (80%); over 1.5 in 8 (80%); over 3.5 in 6 (60%). Away: over 2.5 in 4 of its 4 (100%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 8 of its own 10 (80%). Away: 4 of its 4 (100%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 2 of its own 10 (20%); failed to score in 0 (0%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Worthing's own 10 matches read: Worthing or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 4 (40%). Worthing itself held the lead in 2, winning 2. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 2 of 4. ## Your appraisal — and now the market **Worthing is new to this division, so the rank comparison rests on less than a shared season. Against the block the other keeps: Yeovil Town takes 2.00 points a game, Worthing 2.00 -- nothing between them. -0.23 points a game is the venue form gap, in Worthing's favour: Yeovil Town takes 1.52 a game at home over the last two seasons, Worthing 1.75 away. Yeovil Town scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 61-75; Worthing scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. The shapes mesh: Yeovil Town's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Worthing is softest. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 66% of their games, both teams scoring in 66%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 53%. On the record this leans a goals match.** If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: Worthing lands the first blow more often (8 of 10 to 26 of 50); a one-goal lead has not been safe in Yeovil Town's hands -- ahead without winning in 8 of 50; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Worthing's hands -- ahead without winning in 4 of 10; Yeovil Town finds its goals latest of all -- 18 of its 60 after the 75th, and Worthing concedes most in that same spell; Worthing finds its goals latest of all -- 5 of its 19 after the 75th; the last quarter-hour is where this fixture's money is likeliest to move. That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it. The tissue is a plain goals model: Yeovil Town 1.55 goals expected, Worthing 1.96, from two seasons of scoring rates (25 home matches and 4 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks. - **Match result:** Our tissue: Yeovil Town 3.25 (31%), the draw 4.59 (22%), Worthing 2.11 (47%). The market's averages: 2.05, 3.60 and 2.80. The widest gap is on Yeovil Town: the market is shorter (2.05) than our 3.25 -- it rates that outcome more than we do. - **Over or under 2.5 goals:** Our tissue: over 2.5 1.47 (68%), under 2.5 3.14 (32%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.49, under 2.5 2.55. Close to our view -- no argument either way. - **Both teams to score:** Our tissue: yes 1.48 (68%), no 3.10 (32%). The market's averages: yes 1.42, no 2.70. Close to our view -- no argument either way. - **The 2UP fact:** For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Yeovil Town's own 25 home matches read, one appeared in 14 (56%). In Worthing's own 4 away matches read, 2 (50%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 53% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read. The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing. ## Half-time The HTML page reads the second half from any half-time score you give it: /football/wizard/national-league/2026-09-29/yeovil-town-v-worthing/halftime/ Built 2026-09-29T18:01:28+00:00 from matches completed before kick-off.