# Hartlepool United v Harrogate Town — the Match Wizard National League, game week 11 — Tuesday, 29 September 2026, kick-off 19:45 UK time. > The wizard is price-blind: four steps on played-match facts alone, then your appraisal — and only then the market. Read it in order. Nothing here is a tip or a selection. Hartlepool United: 50 league matches in the bank, 10 from this season and the rest from last season. Harrogate Town: 50 league matches in the bank, 10 from this season and the rest from last season in the League Two. ## Step 1 of 4 — The table **Harrogate Town is new to this division, so the rank comparison rests on less than a shared season. Against the block the other keeps: Hartlepool United takes 1.00 points a game, Harrogate Town 0.89 -- nothing between them.** Step one is THE TABLE: rank against rank, and the blocks -- the table cut into a top, middle and bottom block, drawn from last season's final standings. The question is not just where each side stands but how it behaves against the company the other keeps: does it play to rank against the blocks above and below, or come apart? ### Hartlepool United -- at home - **Where it stands:** Stands 21st of 24 after 10 games, with 9 points. Last season it finished 9th of 24 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the middle block (9th to 16th). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 10 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side new to its division. Against that block it has won 1, drew 0, lost 2 of 3 -- 3 points of 9. At home against them: won 1 of 2. Away against them: won 0 of 1. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 5, drew 2, lost 9 of 16 (1.06 a game); against the middle block won 4, drew 4, lost 5 of 13 (1.23 a game); against the bottom block won 8, drew 5, lost 5 of 18 (1.61 a game); against sides new to the division won 1, drew 0, lost 2 of 3 (1.00 a game). ### Harrogate Town -- away - **Where it stands:** Stands 4th of 24 after 10 games, with 19 points. It was not in this division last season -- it came down from the League Two, where it finished 23rd of 24. - **Its block:** New to the division this season, so it takes no block from last season's final table. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the middle block (9th to 16th). Against that block it has won 5, drew 1, lost 12 of 18 -- 16 points of 54. At home against them: won 3 of 10. Away against them: won 2 of 8. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 3, drew 4, lost 7 of 14 (0.93 a game); against the middle block won 5, drew 1, lost 12 of 18 (0.89 a game); against the bottom block won 6, drew 2, lost 8 of 16 (1.25 a game); against sides new to the division won 0, drew 1, lost 1 of 2 (0.50 a game). ## Step 2 of 4 — Home and away form **+0.42 points a game is the venue form gap, in Hartlepool United's favour: Hartlepool United takes 1.50 a game at home over the last two seasons, Harrogate Town 1.08 away.** Step two is HOME AND AWAY FORM -- the home side judged on its home record, the away side on its away record, because those are the records that will be on the pitch. The last five reach back into last season where this season is too young to answer, and say so. ### Hartlepool United -- at home - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season at home: won 2, drew 0, lost 2 of 4, scoring 4 and conceding 4. Last season at home: won 8, drew 6, lost 6 of 20, scoring 24 and conceding 23 -- 1.50 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: lost to Scunthorpe United 1-4 away; lost to Worthing 1-3 at home; lost to Altrincham 1-2 away; lost to Kidderminster Harriers 0-2 away; beat Woking 1-0 at home. - **The dugout:** The banked record belongs to the club, not one man: 2 different managers took its 15 matches with one recorded (10, 5 apiece), most recently the most recent manager recorded with 10. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ### Harrogate Town -- away - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season away: won 2, drew 0, lost 2 of 4, scoring 7 and conceding 8. Last season away in the League Two: won 5, drew 5, lost 10 of 20, scoring 21 and conceding 27 -- 1.00 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: beat Eastleigh 4-1 at home; lost to Boreham Wood 1-4 away; lost to Fylde 1-2 at home; beat Tamworth 3-1 at home; beat Scunthorpe United 2-0 away. - **The dugout:** Every one of the 20 banked matches with a manager recorded was taken by Simon Weaver. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ## Step 3 of 4 — Goals, and when they come **Hartlepool United scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Harrogate Town scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. The shapes mesh: Hartlepool United's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Harrogate Town is softest.** Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference. Side by side: Hartlepool United scores most in the 76-90+ band (14 of 54); Hartlepool United concedes most in the 76-90+ band (27 of 73); Harrogate Town scores most in the 76-90+ band (17 of 56); Harrogate Town concedes most in the 76-90+ band (17 of 77). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask. ### Hartlepool United -- at home - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.1 and concedes 1.5 a game over its last 50 league matches; at home, 1.2 for and 1.1 against over 24. - **When it scores:** Of 54 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 4; 16-30: 6; 31-45+: 10; 46-60: 9; 61-75: 11; 76-90+: 14. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 14 of 54 (26%). - **When it concedes:** Of 73 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 9; 16-30: 14; 31-45+: 5; 46-60: 13; 61-75: 5; 76-90+: 27. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 27 of 73 (37%). - **The first goal:** Scored first in 20 of its 50 read -- then won 14, drew 4, lost 2; conceded first in 25 -- pulled back 4 wins and 2 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 14 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 9 of its 50 read, winning 9 of them; trailed by two in 15, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 7. ### Harrogate Town -- away - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.1 and concedes 1.5 a game over its last 50 league matches; away, 1.2 for and 1.5 against over 24. - **When it scores:** Of 56 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 10; 16-30: 11; 31-45+: 7; 46-60: 9; 61-75: 2; 76-90+: 17. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 17 of 56 (30%). - **When it concedes:** Of 77 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 8; 16-30: 12; 31-45+: 15; 46-60: 11; 61-75: 14; 76-90+: 17. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 17 of 77 (22%). - **The first goal:** Scored first in 21 of its 50 read -- then won 12, drew 2, lost 7; conceded first in 28 -- pulled back 2 wins and 5 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 11 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 10 of its 50 read, winning 10 of them; trailed by two in 14, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 9. ## Step 4 of 4 — The bookies' favourite markets **Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 46% of their games, both teams scoring in 49%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 48%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.** Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds. How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Hartlepool United's numbers over its games, Harrogate Town's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so. For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Hartlepool United's own 24 home matches read, one appeared in 12 (50%). In Harrogate Town's own 24 away matches read, 11 (46%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 48% of games. ### Hartlepool United -- at home - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 22 of its own 50 (44%); over 1.5 in 33 (66%); over 3.5 in 13 (26%). At home: over 2.5 in 9 of its 24 (38%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 23 of its own 50 (46%). At home: 12 of its 24 (50%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 15 of its own 50 (30%); failed to score in 17 (34%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Hartlepool United's own 50 matches read: Hartlepool United or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 23 (46%). Hartlepool United itself held the lead in 9, winning 9. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 12 of 24. ### Harrogate Town -- away - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 24 of its own 50 (48%); over 1.5 in 38 (76%); over 3.5 in 14 (28%). Away: over 2.5 in 10 of its 24 (42%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 26 of its own 50 (52%). Away: 14 of its 24 (58%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 8 of its own 50 (16%); failed to score in 17 (34%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Harrogate Town's own 50 matches read: Harrogate Town or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 24 (48%). Harrogate Town itself held the lead in 10, winning 10. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 11 of 24. ## Your appraisal — and now the market **Harrogate Town is new to this division, so the rank comparison rests on less than a shared season. Against the block the other keeps: Hartlepool United takes 1.00 points a game, Harrogate Town 0.89 -- nothing between them. +0.42 points a game is the venue form gap, in Hartlepool United's favour: Hartlepool United takes 1.50 a game at home over the last two seasons, Harrogate Town 1.08 away. Hartlepool United scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Harrogate Town scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. The shapes mesh: Hartlepool United's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Harrogate Town is softest. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 46% of their games, both teams scoring in 49%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 48%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.** If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: the first blow is even money on the record (20 of 50 and 21 of 50); a one-goal lead has not been safe in Harrogate Town's hands -- ahead without winning in 9 of 50; Hartlepool United finds its goals latest of all -- 14 of its 54 after the 75th, and Harrogate Town concedes most in that same spell; Harrogate Town finds its goals latest of all -- 17 of its 56 after the 75th, and Hartlepool United concedes most in that same spell; the last quarter-hour is where this fixture's money is likeliest to move. That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it. The tissue is a plain goals model: Hartlepool United 1.17 goals expected, Harrogate Town 1.05, from two seasons of scoring rates (24 home matches and 24 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks. Note: Harrogate Town's figures include last season in the League Two, where goals came against different company. - **Match result:** Our tissue: Hartlepool United 2.59 (39%), the draw 3.46 (29%), Harrogate Town 3.07 (33%). The market's averages: 3.60, 3.50 and 1.83. The widest gap is on Harrogate Town: the market is shorter (1.83) than our 3.07 -- it rates that outcome more than we do. - **Over or under 2.5 goals:** Our tissue: over 2.5 2.61 (38%), under 2.5 1.62 (62%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.69, under 2.5 2.16. The market is shorter than our number on over 2.5. - **Both teams to score:** Our tissue: yes 2.23 (45%), no 1.81 (55%). The market's averages: yes 1.60, no 2.20. The market is shorter than our number on yes. - **The 2UP fact:** For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Hartlepool United's own 24 home matches read, one appeared in 12 (50%). In Harrogate Town's own 24 away matches read, 11 (46%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 48% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read. The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing. ## Half-time The HTML page reads the second half from any half-time score you give it: /football/wizard/national-league/2026-09-29/hartlepool-united-v-harrogate-town/halftime/ Built 2026-09-29T18:01:25+00:00 from matches completed before kick-off.