Forest Green Rovers scores heaviest in the 46-60 spell and concedes heaviest in 1-15; Wealdstone scores heaviest in 61-75 and concedes heaviest in 31-45+.
Forest Green Rovers: 50 league matches in the bank, 10 from this season and the rest from last season. Wealdstone: 50 league matches in the bank, 10 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Forest Green Rovers scores most in the 46-60 band (18 of 84); Forest Green Rovers concedes most in the 1-15 band (14 of 66); Wealdstone scores most in the 61-75 band (18 of 75); Wealdstone concedes most in the 31-45+ band (23 of 83). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Forest Green Rovers -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 1.7 and concedes 1.3 a game over its last 50 league matches; at home, 2.0 for and 1.3 against over 25.
When it scores
Of 84 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 12; 16-30: 11; 31-45+: 11; 46-60: 18; 61-75: 16; 76-90+: 16.
When it concedes
Of 66 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 14; 16-30: 9; 31-45+: 12; 46-60: 6; 61-75: 13; 76-90+: 12. Its heaviest conceding spell is the first 15 minutes -- 14 of 66 (21%).
The first goal
Scored first in 23 of its 50 read -- then won 15, drew 7, lost 1; conceded first in 26 -- pulled back 7 wins and 4 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 25 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 16 of its 50 read, winning 15 of them; trailed by two in 10, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 8.
Wealdstone -- away
Goals a game
Scores 1.5 and concedes 1.7 a game over its last 50 league matches; away, 1.2 for and 1.8 against over 26.
When it scores
Of 75 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 11; 16-30: 11; 31-45+: 9; 46-60: 10; 61-75: 18; 76-90+: 16.
When it concedes
Of 83 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 10; 16-30: 9; 31-45+: 23; 46-60: 13; 61-75: 11; 76-90+: 17.
The first goal
Scored first in 19 of its 50 read -- then won 11, drew 4, lost 4; conceded first in 30 -- pulled back 4 wins and 8 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 21 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 12 of its 50 read, winning 12 of them; trailed by two in 17, rescuing 2 results; was ahead at some point without winning in 9.
Built 19:01 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.